Imports at major U.S. retail container ports are expected to see double-digit year-over-year declines this spring and summer as the economic effects of the coronavirus pandemic continue, according to the Global Port Tracker report released by the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates.

“Factories in China are largely back online and stores that closed here in the U.S.. are starting to reopen, but volume is far lower than what we would see in a ‘normal’ year,” NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold said. “Shoppers will come back and there is still a need for essential items, but the economic recovery will be gradual and retailers will adjust the amount of merchandise they import to meet demand.”

“Much will depend on consumers’ willingness to return to spending,” Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett said. “Our view is that second-quarter economic growth will be significantly worse than the previous quarter, but we continue to expect recovery to come in the second half of the year, especially the fourth quarter and into 2021. This is based on the big and somewhat tenuous assumption that there is no second wave of the virus.”

U.S. ports covered by Global Port Tracker handled 1.37 million Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units in March, the latest month for which after-the-fact numbers are available. That was the lowest volume since 1.34 million TEU in March 2016, down 9.1 percent from this February and down 14.8 percent year-over-year. A TEU is one 20-foot-long cargo container or its equivalent.

April was estimated at 1.51 million TEU, down 13.4 percent year-over-year. May is forecast at 1.47 million TEU, down 20.4 percent from last year; June at 1.46 million TEU, down 18.6 percent; July at 1.58 million TEU, down 19.3 percent; August at 1.73 million TEU, down 12 percent, and September at 1.7 million TEU, down 9.3 percent.

Before the coronavirus began to have an effect on imports, February through May had been forecast at a total of 6.9 million TEU but is now expected to total 5.87 million TEU, a drop of 14.9 percent.

The first half of 2020 is forecast to total 9.15 million TEU, down 13 percent from the same period last year. Before the extent of the pandemic was known, the first half of the year was forecast at 10.47 million TEU.

Imports during 2019 totaled 21.6 million TEU, a 0.8 percent decrease from 2018 amid the trade war with China but still the second-highest year on record.

UPS, a global logistics provider and leading advocate for global trade, looks forward to the start of the UK-U.S. trade negotiations and is hopeful for an ambitious and high-standard trade agreement to be forged.

“UPS believes that a UK-U.S. trade agreement would boost economic growth and promote job creation, particularly for small and medium-sized businesses,” said Mark Vale, Managing Director of UPS in the UK.  “Aligning UK-U.S. customs procedures, and simplifying the administrative processes associated with trading across borders, will broaden the business horizons of many of the smaller companies with whom we work every day.”

“These negotiations are coming at a critical time when we need to be taking steps to stimulate both of our countries’ economic recoveries in a post COVID-19 world,” said Laura Lane, President of UPS Global Public Affairs.  “Given the U.S. and UK’s leadership roles in setting high-standard terms for trade, the negotiation of this agreement represents an important opportunity to set economy-leading, 21st century rules for services, custom modernization and e-commerce.”

UPS has been a vocal supporter of free and fair trade. Globally, UPS moves 3% of the world’s GDP and its more than 480,000 employees operate in 220 countries and territories, transport more than 20 million packages and documents daily supported by the largest in-house customs brokerage operation. We fully support the U.S. and UK’s expanding trade ambitions.

Nokia has partnered with ABI Research, an independent research firm, to survey more than 600 manufacturing decision-makers to assess investment strategies related to 4G/LTE, 5G and Industry 4.0.¹

The survey found that 74% of respondents are looking to upgrade their communications and control networks by the end of 2022 with more than 90% investigating the use of either 4G and/or 5G in their operations. Just over half of respondents (52%) believe that the latest generation of 4G/LTE and 5G will be necessary to meet their transformational goals.

The research also identified key business use cases that would drive investment in 4G or 5G. Respondents reflected the need to digitalize and improve existing infrastructure (63%), automation with robotics (51%) and achieve new levels of employee productivity (42%).

Manish Gulyani, Vice President Marketing, Nokia Enterprise said: “We have reached an inflection point in Industry 4.0 transformation as the fast, secure, low latency connectivity underpinning its implementation now becomes available. This research indicates the strong marketplace appetite for industrial-grade wireless networking to capture the transformational benefits of digitalization and automation. We believe that demand, combined with easy-to-deploy private wireless solutions, will drive adoption.”

The research examined near-term drivers influencing buying decisions for new industrial systems across IT (information technology) and OT (operations technology). IT drivers primarily focus on reducing downtime (53%), improving operations efficiency (42%), and enhancing security (36%). In comparison, OT drivers reflect a desire to replace aging infrastructure (43%), improve efficiency (40%) and increase capacity (38%).

Further highlights indicate:

• 88% of respondents stated that they were familiar with private wireless (4G/5G) networking
• 84% that are considering 4G/5G will deploy their own local private wireless network in their manufacturing operations
• leading priority buying areas are automation and machine upgrades (47%), IIoT initiatives (41%), with cloud infrastructure following at (37%).

Ryan Martin, Principal Analyst, ABI Research said: “Importantly, research findings indicate a preference for deploying private fully-owned and operated​ wireless networks, with manufacturers favoring in-house management to allay security concerns​. It’s evident that respondents are not entirely committed to Wi-Fi/WLAN and will consider latest generations of wireless technologies. As a result, 2020 is a critical year for networking suppliers to educate the market regarding the merits of 4G/LTE and 5G.

“Based on this research we also observe a pan-industry need to quantify not only the potential ROI of investing in private wireless, but also to clearly indicate the cost of inaction – vendors need to make the case for investing in Industry 4.0 today to gain a clear competitive advantage over those who choose to wait.”